By Angela Fritz, The Washington Post
• Hurricane Irma is moving away from Cuba and toward the Florida Keys on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
• Storm conditions began in South Florida Saturday morning, and things continue to deteriorate. Winds over 100 mph are expected over the Florida Keys at daybreak Sunday.
• The center of the storm is expected to arrive in the Keys on Sunday morning about 8 a.m. By Sunday evening at 8 p.m., the storm will be close to Fort Myers.
• Even though the storm has weakened, forecasters are highly confident it will intensify again when the core traverses the warm water of the Florida Strait.
• The Florida Keys and Florida’s Gulf Coast, from the Everglades to Tampa, are at the highest risk. We don’t know exactly if and where the eye of the storm will come ashore, but impacts will be severe in this region no matter what.
• “Storm surge flooding of 10-15 ft is now expected along the SW Florida coast,” the National Hurricane Center tweeted on Saturday. “This is a dire and life-threatening situation.”
• Because of the westward shift in the track, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area is most likely to miss the most destructive part of the storm. But because of Irma’s enormous size, the entire state will probably endure damaging winds.
• The storm has already ravaged parts of the Caribbean, where one official called it a “nuclear hurricane.” About 95 percent of the islands of Barbuda and St. Martin sustained some damage or were outright destroyed.
• More than 5 million people across Florida have been ordered to evacuate and thousands crammed into shelters.
• On Saturday, Miami was a ghost metropolis. There was no traffic on typically-jammed roads and highways. Almost all stores appeared to be closed.
• Highways were clogged with evacuees Friday. Authorities are opening shoulder lanes to traffic in some locations. In Georgia, Interstate 75 southbound was reversed to accommodate the load. Florida airports announced closures, including Orlando, Tampa and Fort Lauderdale, as Irma approaches the state.
Where is Hurricane Irma going?
Hurricane Irma is heading toward Southwest Florida. Landfall is possible anywhere from the Keys to Tampa on Sunday, though dangerous conditions will affect the entire state.
On Saturday, Irma began to turn north away from Cuba. The storm’s eye was 115 miles southeast of Key West, Fla., and it was moving west-northwest at just 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 125 mph on Saturday afternoon, making it a Category 3 — but the storm is expected to strengthen overnight as the center passes over warm water south of Florida.
Because of the westward shift in the track, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area is most likely to miss the most destructive part of the storm. Now we are focused on the Florida Keys and the southwest coast from Naples to Tampa.
What will be the impacts?
Storm surge
Irma’s storm surge will be catastrophic in some places.
“Storm surge flooding of 10-15 ft is now expected along the SW Florida coast,” the National Hurricane Center tweeted on Saturday. “This is a dire and life-threatening situation.”
More than half of all hurricane deaths are caused by storm surge.
Storm surge forecast:
• Cape Sable to Captiva — 10 to 15 feet
• Captiva to Ana Maria Island — 6 to 10 feet
• Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys — 5 to 10 feet
• Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay — 5 to 8 feet
• North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay — 4 to 6 feet
• South Santee River to Fernandina Beach — 4 to 6 feet
• Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River — 4 to 6 feet
• Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach — 2 to 4 feet
Damaging wind
Destructive, sustained winds of 60+ mph are expected to begin on the Florida Peninsula on Sunday morning and will spread northward through Monday. Power outages are likely, even away from the coast.
Sustained winds of 100+ mph are likely near the coast. The Naples area may well be hit the by the strongest winds — 115 to 135 mph with higher gusts — which would arrive Sunday morning.
It cannot be understated how dangerous these winds will be.
Inland flooding
Rainfall will be torrential in some locations, though it’s impossible to know exactly where the heaviest rain will occur. All inland locations that receive rain from Hurricane Irma or its remnants should be prepared for flash flooding.
As the storm moves north, it will take the flood threat with it. Georgia, South Carolina and western North Carolina should all be prepared for torrential rain and dangerous flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas, early next week.
• The Florida Keys — 10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches
• The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia — 8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches
• The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina — 4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches
• Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina — 4 to 8 inches
• Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee — 2 to 5 inches
Tornadoes
Tornadoes are possible in South Florida on Saturday night. The risk spreads north on Sunday. A tornado watch was in effect for South Florida until 12 a.m. Sunday.
When will Hurricane Irma make landfall?
Landfall is the moment the center of the storm passes over a coast. Even without landfall, major impacts will be felt all along the path. If the storm makes landfall in the Keys, it will be Sunday morning. If it makes landfall in Southwest Florida, it will be Sunday afternoon.
When was the last time a major hurricane struck Florida?
The last “major” hurricane — registering as a Category 3 storm or stronger — to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. Wilma was also the last major hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the United States until Harvey struck Texas late last month.
Is it rare to have back-to-back major hurricane landfalls in the U.S.?
Less than a week after Hurricane Harvey dissipated over Texas, another major hurricane threatens the U.S. coast. It is very rare to have back-to-back major hurricanes make landfall on the U.S. mainland.
According to the National Hurricane Center, it’s only happened twice before that we know of:
1893: The Charleston Hurricane (Category 3) and Chenier Caminada Hurricane (Category 4)
2004: Hurricane Ivan made landfall on the Gulf Coast as a Category 3, then Hurricane Jeanne made landfall as a Category 3 on Hutchinson Island, Fla., north of Miami.
Where has Irma been, and what did it do there?
Hurricane Irma ravaged the Caribbean islands of Barbuda and Antigua as well as St. Martin on Tuesday.
Apocalyptic scenes of flattened buildings and ruined airports emerged from the once-lush islands — even as another potent storm, Hurricane Jose, followed fast in Irma’s wake.
About 95 percent of the tiny islands of Barbuda and St. Martin sustained some damage or were outright destroyed, officials and local residents said. Ghastly photos and videos from St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, also known as St. Barts, showed buildings in ruin and cars and trucks almost submerged in the storm surge.
“Everything is a disaster, total devastation,” Dieter Schaede said by telephone from St. Martin, where he lives. “Roofs down, houses totally flown away, wiped out.”
On Wednesday, the storm battered Puerto Rico as the eye tracked to the north of San Juan. Intense wind gusts were reported, including 111 mph on Culebra Island and 131 mph on Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands. More than a million people were left without power in Puerto Rico, and communication channels were sparse.
On Thursday, Irma moved on to the island of Hispaniola, which includes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. General Rafael A. Carrasco, said that at least 2,721 homes have been damaged in the Dominican Republic. The government said nearly 7,000 people had been evacuated from their homes, and 7,400 tourists had been moved from beachside hotels.
The Haiti Civil Protection Agency reported “moderate flooding” in four northern provinces, and said a bridge linking Haiti to the Dominican Republic had collapsed in the border city of Ouanaminthe.
![By STEVEN WINE and RUSS BYNUM (Associated Press) Guitar legend Dickey Betts, who co-founded the Allman Brothers Band and wrote their biggest hit, “Ramblin’ Man,” has died. He was 80. The Rock & Roll Hall of Famer died at his home in Osprey, Florida, David Spero, Betts’ manager of 20 years, confirmed. Betts had been […]](https://www.denverpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/AP24109579478566.jpg?w=500 "By STEVEN WINE and RUSS BYNUM (Associated Press) Guitar legend Dickey Betts, who co-founded the Allman Brothers Band and wrote their biggest hit, “Ramblin’ Man,” has died. He was 80. The Rock & Roll Hall of Famer died at his home in Osprey, Florida, David Spero, Betts’ manager of 20 years, confirmed. Betts had been […]")