Liberty vs. Oregon predictions and best bets for March Madness first round clash tonight

The Oregon Ducks are back in the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive season, and coach Dana Altman’s team could do some damage.

No. 5 seed Oregon faces No. 12 Liberty in the final game of the first round on Friday night in Seattle (7:10 p.m. PT on truTV, and streaming on demand). The Ducks (24-9 SU, 15-17-1 ATS) earned an at-large bid after a strong regular season in the rigorous Big Ten. Liberty (28-6 SU, 20-10-1 ATS) won the Conference USA regular season and tournament titles to clinch an automatic bid to the Big Dance.

Can Altman continue his spotless NCAA Tournament first-round record? Oddsmakers think so. The Ducks are 6.5- to 7.5-point favorites. The over/under is 139.5 points.

Here are our Liberty vs. Oregon predictions and best bets for this March Madness first round matchup.

Liberty vs. Oregon predictions and best bets

• Oregon -6.5: -118 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
• Nate Bittle Over 14.5 points: -125 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

College basketball fans love No. 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They provide a classic Cinderella story that is easy to support. It’s often a smaller school against a big school, and if you don’t root for the big school, you’re probably rooting for the upset.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the record for No. 12 seeds vs. No. 5s is 55-101 (35.3%). Not bad!

Of course, public perception often lends itself to value for the No. 5 seeds, and that’s what we have in this matchup between Oregon and Liberty. The Ducks are a great bet at -6.5.

Liberty lives and dies by the 3-pointer. The Flames rank eighth in the nation with 41.3% of their points coming from behind the arc. They’re among the best long-range shooting teams at 39.5% (fifth nationally), so their approach has worked.

The Flames’ best two wins this season came against Kansas State and McNeese State — close to what they’ll face against Oregon. They did not play any Quad 1 games.

The Ducks rank 59th in the nation in 3-point percentage defense at (31.6%). That’s not elite, but considering they did that against a much more difficult schedule, they should not be overwhelmed by Liberty’s talent.

Altman thrives when given extra time to prepare an opponent. He’ll find a way to defend Liberty. Having superior length on the perimeter will help against two of Liberty’s smaller guards.

While Liberty will concentrate on the perimeter, Oregon will be balanced. That includes a steady helping of touches for 7-foot center Nate Bittle. Bittle averages a team-high 14.1 points per game.

He has scored at least 15 points in six of his last eight games, including 22 against Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals and 36 against Washington in the regular season finale. Liberty doesn’t have the size to match Bittle down low.

Liberty vs. Oregon moneyline odds analysis

Why Oregon could win as the favorite

Best odds: -295 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Coach Dana Altman has taken Oregon to the NCAA Tournament eight times before this season, and he is 8-0 in first-round games. That includes three tournaments when the Ducks were No. 11 or No. 12 seeds and three when they were No. 7 or. 8.

Why is Altman so successful in these spots? He has three or four days to prepare. Liberty’s attack is one-dimensional, and Altman will have no problem building a game plan to combat it.

Why Liberty could win as the underdog

Best odds: +260 at bet365 Sportsbook

A team that can make 3-pointers at a high rate is always dangerous. Oregon may have length, but Liberty could counter that with patience and extra passes.

Not much is more frustrating than opponents constantly draining 3-pointers, so if the Flames get on a streak, it could demoralize Oregon. Even if the Ducks maintain a lead, Liberty will always be a threat to go in front with its lethal 3-point shooting.