How Illinois can knock off Kentucky and advance to Sweet 16

The Illini find themselves in a second-round clash of the Titans on Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee.

In front of a friendly-ish crowd, Brad Underwood’s squad will square off against Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats. If this were last season, John Calipari and Orlando Antigua would be on the opposite sideline.

Coach O traded his BBN for O&B, helped deliver Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic, and the rest is history.

It’s a Final Four matchup in the round of 32. It’s a legendary blue blood vs. a program seeking to ascend to that status.

Back-to-back Sweet 16s would be another step in that direction for an Illinois squad that has gotten its collective ass off the mat multiple times during a tumultuous season.

Kentucky is a difficult matchup for the Illini. They are an experienced club that shoots the three with solid efficiency and attacks with an offense that can give the Illini defense fits.

Illinois rolls into Fiserv Forum with two one-and-done stars, not Kentucky.

Kentucky has a veteran roster that will require massive offseason turnover, not Illinois.

So let’s dive into how the Illini can curb the Wildcats’ attack.

Behind the arc

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Kentucky hits three-point shots at a 37% clip. They hold their opponents to a 30% mark, just a shade below Illinois’ season-long 31% pace. Kentucky took 148 fewer threes than the Illini this season.

Kentucky is paced by legitimate sniper Koby Brea, who shoots 44% from behind the arc on six attempts per game. I’ve done enough personal and professional hand-wringing about Illinois’ inability to get any traction on Brea in the portal despite Orlando Antigua’s family connections. He was the ideal target for this year’s squad (along with Stanford big man Maxime Raynaud).

For context, the player Illinois signed in Brea’s stead, Ben Humrichous, shot 34%.

Guarding Brea will be one of the most important factors in Illinois remaining competitive. The Illini’s young players often have trouble getting over and under screens. With a shooter like Brea, that could be the difference between winning and losing.

Speaking of winning, 247Sports’ Jeremy Werner made an excellent point on the Illini Inquirer podcast. Illinois is 11-0 when it makes at least 11 three-point field goals.

But when they don’t hit threes and run up against a big, physical squad like Kentucky that can hang on the glass, the game could get out of hand quickly. So the Illini have to balance their three-point driven attack with improved shot selection.

(What? The three-point efficiency line has become a broken record? Perhaps, but does that make it untrue?)

Bigs

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Mark Pope plays multiple bigs. They are multi-skilled and can wreck a game at all three levels. On the glass, Amari Williams (8.5), Brandon Garrison (3.5), and Andrew Carr (4.7) make a formidable trio. Carr and Garrison are both moderate threats to score from deep. Kentucky isn’t afraid to play any two of them together. This could create more opportunities for Tomislav Ivisic and Morez Johnson to be offensively disruptive from the perimeter and the dunker spot.

Illinois could have a favorable situation with their bigs if Ivisic continues his hot shooting and his conditioning continues to hold up. Kentucky’s five-out style almost mirrors Illinois’ scheme. Stopping Kentucky’s big men from doing what Ivisic did against Xavier will be key to keeping the game winnable.

Matchups

TCR // Jack Jungmann

The big questions for Illinois revolve around who draws which defensive assignments.

Will Kylan Boswell be tasked with slowing the downhill presence of Otega Oweh? Boswell has never shied away from difficult matchups, having locked up players like Danny Wolf, Boogie Fland, and Ryan Conwell. As his offensive game has evolved, the Champaign native has remained the Illini’s defensive anchor. He’s the tip of the sword for an Illini team that has the talent and coaching to pull this upset.

Who will guard Koby Brea? Will it be Tre White, or should White be deployed against one of Kentucky’s bigger players?

Ty Rodgers would have been the ideal matchup for Brea, 6-foot-6 Jaxson Robinson or 6-foot-6 Oweh. But now, the Illini will be tasked with matching Kentucky’s wings with a combination of White, Jake Davis, Boswell, Will Riley, and Jakucionis. Morez Johnson has to be ready to switch on some pick-and-roll action.

However, my biggest defensive concern for the Illini is Kentucky’s offensive action. They run a lot of cutters. They get action going to the basket with their bigs facilitating their big, physical wings getting to the rim off cutting action. Mark Pope’s offensive scheme gets open shots. Kentucky puts pressure on the rim and Illinois must be prepared to overcome that pressure.

The Ultimate X-Factor

TCR // David J. Pollak

Will Riley’s emergence has singularly spiked the vaunted Illini ceiling. His ascent into stardom has given the Illini a versatile player with size and skill who can score, rebound, facilitate, and defend. His ability as a shotmaker is unmatched by anyone on Kentucky. While Brea may be the best single perimeter shooter in the country, Riley has the upside to be a Carmelo Anthony-like run in March. He’s good enough to put the team on his back, but can he do it as the competition improves?

Oweh plays a style reminiscent of Terrence Shannon Jr. That’s part of why he’s been an Illini target as a prep and in the portal. He can bully ball his way to a dominant performance. His veteran experience and physical dominance could power Kentucky past Illinois to a deep run in Mark Pope’s first year.

In the end...

These two teams come out close to even in the wash. The matchup will come down to execution. Can Illinois hit enough threes at an efficient enough clip to keep Brea’s marksmanship at bay on the scoreboard? Can Illinois defend Kentucky’s off-ball action successfully? Can Kylan Boswell and Will Riley build on their performances against Xavier? And can Kasparas Jakucionis cut down the turnovers enough to electrify the partisan crowd with his playmaking and scoring?

Illinois has the talent edge (slightly). Kentucky has had the efficiency edge in a tougher conference. Mark Pope has silenced a lot of doubters, and Brad Underwood has impressed with his ability to make in-season adjustments.

Underwood’s Illini have enough firepower to flip the killswitch on Big Blue Nation’s season if the team who played Xavier shows up. But if the team who played Maryland shows up, the finger-pointing will commence at the final bell.