Texas Tech vs Arkansas prediction, picks in Sweet 16 bracket: Who advances to Elite Eight?

WICHITA, Kan. — The Texas Tech basketball team is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2022 and will be headed to San Francisco to continue its March Madness journey.

The 3-seed Red Raiders moved into the third round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament by beating 14-seed UNC Wilmington 82-72 in the first round and downing 11-seed Drake 77-64 in the second round on Saturday.

Next up for Texas Tech is Arkansas, the 10-seed out of the West Region, on Thursday. The Razorbacks, coached by John Calipari, upset 2-seed St. John's 75-66 after topping Tech's Big 12 rival Kansas in the first round.

Here's a quick look at the matchup and early prediction for who will win the game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks in Sweet 16: Early scouting report

Texas Tech improved to 27-8 on the season with their two wins in Wichita. The Red Raiders finished second in the Big 12 Conference standings and are the only team since Nov. 30 to have beaten Houston.

Texas Tech is led by Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin, who had 25 points and 12 rebounds in the second-round win over Drake. Darrion Williams, who also earned first-team all-Big 12 honors, produced 28 points and six rebounds in the victory over the Bulldogs.

The Red Raiders have been without third-leading scorer Chance McMillian each of the past three games, but point guard Elijah Hawkins has stepped up in his absence. He nearly had a triple-double against UNCW and totaled 16 points, seven assists and three rebounds against Drake.

Arkansas (22-13) was trending out of the March Madness picture for much of the season before turning it on late, winning five of their final six games in the regular season before the NCAA Tournament wins over Kansas and St. John's.

The Razorbacks were without Adou Thiero for their games in Providence but saw the return of freshman Boogie Fland, who's averaged 14.6 points per game. Billy Richmond III had 16 points off the bench against the Johnnies while Johnell Davis totaled 13 points and Karter Knox 15 in the second round.

Arkansas is averaging 76.6 points per game while surrendering 71.0 points a game on defense.

Texas Tech vs Arkansas in March Madness prediction

Final score: Texas Tech 79, Arkansas 72 — The Red Raiders may not have McMillian back (that's to be determined), but have shown an ability for everyone to get involved. The Razorbacks do have some size that will give Tech trouble, though that's nothing new for Texas Tech.