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The third-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders battle the top-seeded Florida Gators in their West Region Elite Eight matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Texas Tech rallied from 16 points down to defeat Arkansas 85-83 in overtime, while Florida outlasted Maryland 87-71 in their Sweet 16 matchups on Thursday. The Red Raiders (28-8), who are making their third Elite Eight appearance, and first since 2019, are looking to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2019. The Gators (33-4), who are making their 10th Elite Eight appearance, and first since 2017, are looking to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2014.

Tipoff from Chase Center in San Francisco is set for 6:09 p.m. ET. Florida holds a 2-1 edge in the all-time series, with the Red Raiders earning a 69-66 win in their last meeting in 2018. Florida is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Texas Tech vs. Florida odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 158. Before making any Texas Tech vs. Florida picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-168 roll (+1815) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas Tech vs. Florida and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Florida vs. Texas Tech:

  • Texas Tech vs. Florida spread: Florida -7.5
  • Texas Tech vs. Florida over/under: 158 points  
  • Texas Tech vs. Florida money line: Florida -347, Texas Tech +274
  • TT: The Red Raiders have hit the money line in 19 of their last 24 games (+14.55 units)  
  • FLA: The Gators have covered the spread in 24 of their last 32 games (+15.20 units)  
  • Texas Tech vs. Florida picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Florida can cover

Walter Clayton Jr. has scored 20 or more points in four of the past five games, including a 23-point, five-rebound and two-assist effort in the 95-69 first-round win over Norfolk State. He had 23 points and three rebounds in a 77-75 win over UConn in the second round. His best game this season came against Kentucky in a 106-100 loss on Jan. 4, when he poured in 33 points and added five assists and three rebounds. In 36 games, all starts, he is averaging 17.7 points, 4.2 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 32.4 minutes.

Senior guard Alijah Martin, a transfer from Florida Atlantic, has reached double-digit scoring in each of the last nine games. He poured in 14 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished out two assists in the win over Maryland. He had 18 points, four rebounds and three assists against UConn. In 35 games this season, including 33 starts, Martin is averaging 14.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.6 steals in 30 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why Texas Tech can cover 

The Red Raiders are powered by sophomore forward J.T. Toppin, the Big 12 Player of the Year. He has registered a pair of double-doubles in the NCAA Tournament, including 25 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks in a 77-64 win over Drake in the second round. He had 12 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and two blocks in an 82-72 win over UNC-Wilmington in the first round. In 32 games, all starts, he is averaging 18.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.2 assists in 27.1 minutes.

Junior forward Darrion Williams registered a near double-double in the overtime win over Arkansas on Thursday. He poured in 20 points, grabbed nine rebounds, dished out three assists and made three steals in the game. He had 28 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals in the win over Drake. In 33 games, all starts, he is averaging 14.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals in 30 minutes. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texas Tech vs. Florida picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 156 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas Tech vs. Florida, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida vs. Texas Tech spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned nearly $1,900 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.