Nuclear experts warn Trump over Saudi nuclear deal

US President Donald Trump has been advised by senior nuclear officials not to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium. In an article for the Foreign Policy Magazine, Victor Gilinsky, who served under three American presidents and now works on the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the non-proliferation Policy Education Centre, warned that cosying up to the Saudi’s and easing non-proliferation controls for Riyadh is “playing with fire”.

The two experts voiced their concerns in the run up to a meeting between US Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih who are about to meet in London to discuss a nuclear agreement. It’s understood that the US would allow Riyadh to enrich uranium and extract plutonium in return for American companies getting a chance to build nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia.

According to reports, restrictions on enriching uranium will be lowered for the Saudis, opening up a clear path for Riyadh to acquire nuclear weapons. Gilinsky and Sokolski are deeply sceptical over Riyadh’s resistance to restrictions on uranium enrichment and plutonium extraction. The experts believe that their refusal is a “public declaration that the Kingdom wants to keep a nuclear weapons option open”.

Read: US may open path for Saudi Arabia to acquire nuclear weapons

They cite previous Saudi actions and instability within the Kingdom as strong grounds for insisting on blocking all avenues to acquiring nuclear weapons and demanding strict compliance with the 123 agreement, known as the gold standard in nuclear deals. The UAE signed this in 2009 in a deal that will see four nuclear power stations built in the country while also enforcing strict rules for non-proliferation.

Gilinsky and Sokolski claim that Riyadh had funded the development of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. In return Islamabad has pledged to provide nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia. Saudi also purchased long range missiles from China, designed to carry nuclear weapons, without informing the US, the experts claim. According to the authors, “such emphasis on long-range missiles would not make any sense in the absence of nuclear warheads.”

While Saudi Arabia’s past behaviour has fuelled suspicion, it is the future of the Kingdom that has raised the biggest concern for Gilinsky and Sokolski. “Saudi Arabia is neither a stable state nor a benign actor in the Middle East that deserves US coddling,” they say.

“The most important reason for caution about any nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia,” they said, is that “is unlikely to survive for long in its current form, because Saudi Arabia’s ruling family is remarkably unstable.”

Saudi Araba’s “shaky foundation” is a major source of concern. Describing the Kingdom as “an absolutist monarchy that represses minorities, chops off heads of political opponents, and lacks a codified system of law that is out of step with 21st-century reality”, Gilinsky and Sokolski predict that the rule of the current regime may fall and a future regime that replaces the current monarchy may not be as friendly to US interests.

Read: EU, US officials plan Berlin talks on Iran nuclear deal

According to Gilinsky and Sokolski the US faced a similar scenario with the Shah of Iran.  Considered a good friend and a modernizer before being deposed in the 1979 revolution, Washington was ready to back a nascent nuclear program during his rule, they pointed out.

They advise Trump “not to get carried away by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman”.  Gilinsky and Sokolski appear to suggest that the US has been distracted by Bin Salman’s modernisation plan, including lifting of the ban on women drivers. They contrast his headline grabbing policies with what they say are his “more significant” decision which is “extremely poor”, pointing to his decision to get involved in a war in Yemen. Bin Salman’s “zeal” for confronting Iran and his “method of shaking money out of Saudi billionaires” they conclude “should raise concerns about the kingdom’s financial situation”.

They insist that “if the United States cuts a deal with Riyadh on nuclear power, it must restrict Saudi nuclear activity strictly to generating electricity”.