A week after Vladimir Putin's call for "partial mobilization" and his announcement that he was ready to use "all the means [at his disposal] to defend Russia, if its territorial integrity is threatened," the Russian president's solemn TV address on September 21 continues to agitate experts in nuclear deterrence.
While some analysts try to bring some perspective to Mr. Putin's assertion that "this is not a bluff," others are more wary. Much of the uncertainty – deliberately fuelled by Moscow since the start of the war – concerns the possible use of so-called "tactical" nuclear weapons, those with a range of less than 500 kilometers. Experts usually refer to them as "non-strategic" weapons – that is, weapons not covered by bilateral arms control treaties, with a range of less than 5,500 kilometers, designed for use on the battlefield. In contrast, "strategic" weapons are generally defined as having an "intercontinental" range.
"It is already clear that the response will be conventional and not nuclear because Ukraine is not covered by NATO security guarantees"
Not all nuclear-armed countries have tactical nuclear weapons. France gradually relinquished this part of its arsenal in the 1990s. Before then, its land-based nuclear missiles – Pluto and then Hades – had a launch base at Plateau d'Albion in southeastern France. Data on whether China, Pakistan and North Korea have acquired this capability is unclear.
It is assumed that Russia, like the United States, has a tactical nuclear arsenal. According to public data, Russia's tactical nuclear weapons include airborne, land-based and naval assets. The most widely known are the Iskander-M launchers, for which Moscow has about 70 nuclear warheads. A number of Iskander-Ms have been positioned in eastern Ukraine, in Belarus, and in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This Russian short and medium-range ballistic missile system can carry conventional or nuclear warheads.
However, despite how powerful these warheads are, the damage caused by their detonation would be limited to a small area, about the size of a city. Tactical weapons have yields generally estimated at a few tens of kilotons, compared with several hundred for strategic weapons. "The bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was 14 kilotons and would therefore be classified today as a tactical weapon, even if its effects were strategic. Despite the tragedy, the radioactivity did not last long and they were able to start rebuilding just a few days later," explains Héloïse Fayet, an expert in deterrence issues at the French Institute of International Relations.
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