Alaska’s grand liquefied natural gas (LNG) ambitions appear to be reaching fruition.
Following decades of disputes, political arguments, environmental concerns, revised plans and hurdles, the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) is now finalising development agreements with energy investment company Glenfarne, which is set to become lead developer for the Alaska LNG project.
The $44bn venture in the US’s largest state will incorporate a 1,300km pipeline to a yet-to-be-built liquefaction plant on the Kenai Peninsula, south of Anchorage, with approximately 3.5 billion cubic feet of LNG per day to be eventually exported to markets around Asia.
As progress has ramped up, on 14 March Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy announced that exports could begin by 2030.
The project has navigated the rollercoaster of four administrations, two led by Donald Trump, who recently touted Alaska LNG in his address to Congress.
“My administration is working on a gigantic natural gas pipeline in Alaska, among the largest in the world, where Japan, South Korea and other nations want to be our partner with investments of trillions of dollars each,” he said.
Japan has signalled interest in backing the project and, according to Dunleavy, talks are ongoing with Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand, countries with which the US does not currently have free trade agreements. However, concerns remain about economic sustainability and the timeline to completion.
In comments to Offshore Technology, AGDC and Glenfarne said: “Alaska LNG has a number of competitive advantages that are very appealing to Asian energy markets. Alaska’s North Slope natural gas is a stranded asset, which means that our feedstock is very economical and avoids the volatility found with index pricing elsewhere.”
A ‘stranded asset’ is an investment that loses value prematurely due to unforeseen changes, such as a shift in regulations or market demand.
Establishing successful trade relations through the project also appears to be at odds with President Trump’s escalating tariffs war, which has exposed Asian countries’ economies and supply chains to significant vulnerabilities.
Consequently, Alaska LNG represents a delicate balancing act for countries such as Japan that are looking to strengthen their LNG capacity while walking the tightrope of trading with Trump’s US.
The US has currently imposed 25% tariffs on imports from its neighbours Canada and Mexico, 20% for China and 25% on all steel and aluminium imports. Trump believes that tariffs can deter war, boost US manufacturing, protect jobs and raise hundreds of billions of dollars to pay for childcare and tax cuts.
Trump and Alaska LNG
Alaska LNG was approved during Trump’s first term as president, receiving Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorisation in 2020 and final legal approval in 2022.
The Biden administration then conducted an environmental assessment of the project in 2023, with a final approval prohibiting the venting of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. However, there remain concerns about the environmental impact of hydrocarbon developments on the state’s landscapes and coastal waters.
Since retaking office Trump has pushed ahead with the project, with an executive order published on 20 January highlighting its “economic and national security benefits”.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Alaska’s natural gas reserves are approximately 100 trillion cubic feet (tcf), most of which is reinjected back into oil reservoirs to help maintain crude oil production rates.
Redirecting LNG to international markets would boost the US’s market position while also helping to meet local demand for gas. This is especially important for south-central Alaska – where around half of the state’s population lives – which is facing a supply shortfall expected to hit in 2027.
The executive order also cited “allied nations within the Pacific region” as part of the development of Alaska LNG. However, economic and political relations between the US and Asia have been complicated by Trump’s tariffs.
Thus far, tariffs have been focused on China, Mexico and Canada. However, as per Reuters, Taiwan and Thailand, two of the key countries considering investments in Alaska LNG, are the most exposed in Asia to increased tariffs due to their high export-to-gross domestic product ratios with the US.
South Korea and Thailand are also closely tied to North American supply chains, making them vulnerable to US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while Taiwan is heavily impacted by US-China trade tensions.
During his election campaign, Trump singled out Canada and Mexico for tariffs “until drugs and illegal aliens stop invading our country”. He has since called for Canada to become annexed as the 51st state, intensifying the trade war.
To date, there have been no binding purchase agreements for Alaska’s LNG. The only deal the project has secured is a domestic gas sales precedent agreement with Great Bear Pantheon, a subsidiary of Pantheon Resources.
Prioritising LNG trade
Japan is a point of focus for Alaska LNG, partly due to its accessible proximity to the state. Like many other nations around the globe, Japan is also looking to reduce its dependency on Russian gas, which amounts to 9% of its LNG capacity. Five out of six million tonnes per year comes from long-term contracts at Sakhalin-2, run by the Kremlin-controlled Gazprom.
As of 2023, 29% of Japan’s entire energy production was based on LNG, a relatively high amount in the continent.
Hiroshi Hashimoto, senior fellow in LNG and gas at the Institute of Energy Economics Japan, told Offshore Technology that: “Alaska LNG is among one of the LNG projects to be considered as a future supply source. Although its location is certainly attractive to Asian consumers, major challenges are anticipated, notably initial costs of the long-distance-harsh-environment-proof pipeline, the gas treatment plant and the liquefaction plant.”
Securing a steady supply from LNG-rich Alaska would help Japan achieve diversification. Potential investors in Alaska LNG are reported to include the state-run Japan Bank for International Cooperation and trading companies such as Mitsubishi and Mitsui.
“Potential Asian buyers and investors need to know costs and construction timelines, the terms and conditions of off-taking volumes from the project, and what supports can be offered from authorities,” confirms Hashimoto.
Diversified gas supplies could be a strong enough incentive and advantage for Asian investors to overlook Trump’s antagonistic trade disputes and concerns around Alaska LNG’s financial costs. Indeed, the importance of this issue was highlighted at the beginning of 2025 in Europe with the end of the Ukraine-Russia gas transit deal.
The end of the deal caused chaos for European gas routes, with some countries securing alternative supplies and others facing energy emergencies in the depths of winter.
AGDC and Glenfarne are reportedly pursuing a final investment decision by mid-2025, with state and company officials set to visit Asian nations in late March to court investors.
Overall LNG export capacity in the US is expected to grow more than sixfold, from 87 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2024 to 565mtpa by 2030, solidifying its status as the largest global LNG exporter, according to data from Offshore Technology’s parent company GlobalData.
Alaska LNG stands at the centre of this growth and a complex web of interests, from Trump’s quest for energy dominance to Alaska’s domestic gas demand concerns and Asia’s diversification efforts.
Ultimately, the success of the project will require a stable geopolitical and investment landscape – one that is unlikely to be found during Trump’s second term.
